Russian Heart Failure Journal 2015year Role of simple clinico-laboratory parameters in one-year prediction of lEF HF course in the epoch of high-tech methods of health care: the available prognosis study


To access this material please log in or register

Register Authorize
2015/№3

Role of simple clinico-laboratory parameters in one-year prediction of lEF HF course in the epoch of high-tech methods of health care: the available prognosis study

Prokopova L. V.1, Kashuba S. M.1, Galenko V. L.1, Fedotov P. A.1, Smirnov B. I.2, Sitnikova M. Yu.1
1 – Federal State Budgetary Institution, “North-West Federal Medical Research Center” of the RF Ministry of Health Care, Akkuratova 2, St.-Petersburg 197341
2 – V.I. Uljyanov (Lenin) Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education, “LETI”, Prof. Popova 5, St.-Petersburg 197376

Keywords: prognosis, systolic heart failure, high-tech methods of health care, one-year survival

DOI: 10.18087/rhfj.2015.3.2088

Background. Despite the existence of multiple regional scales for one-year prediction of CHF course developed in European countries and the USA, which are necessary for identifying the type of high-tech health care (HTMC), the experience of using these resources in Russian patients is negative. Aim. To identify among routine indexes predictors of one-year prognosis for systolic CHF in Russian patients and to develop subsequently a medical calculator. Materials and methods. A prospective study was performed on 212 patients with FC II-IV systolic CHF and LV EF ≤35%. Results. A descriptive model was developed for calculation of 12-month outcome probabilities in CHF patients, including the following variables: frequency of respiratory movements (FRM); orthostatic systolic BP (SBP); % RDW (red cell distribution width) and relative lymphocyte count in serum; and age of CHF onset. Conclusion. The Available Prognosis study performed on Russian patients with low EF CHF (lEF HF) showed a considerable correlation of the short-term prediction with routine indexes, such as age of CHF onset, FRM, and orthostatic SBP. Also, the study confirmed the predictive value for heterogeneity of % RDW and relative lymphocyte count in serum. Some traditional risk factors (RFs) (gender, BWI, ischemic etiology of HF, history of MI, high serum levels of creatinine and uric acid and low serum albumin, low GFR, wide QRS complex, history of ventricular tachycardia, and concurrent COPD) may lose their role in determination of short-term prediction for patients with lEF HF in the conditions of maximum CHF stabilization with optimum drug therapy, correction of metabolic disorders, and electrophysiological treatment.
  1. McMurray J. J. V., Adamopoulos S., Anker S. D., Auricchio A., Böhm M., Dickstein K., et al. ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure 2012: The Task Force for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute and Chronic Heart Failure 2012 of the European Society of Cardiology. Developed in collaboration with the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the ESC. Eur. Heart J. 2012;33 (14):1787–1847.
  2. WRITING COMMITTEE MEMBERS, Yancy C. W., Jessup M., Bozkurt B., Butler J., Casey D. E., et al. 2013 ACCF / AHA guideline for the management of heart failure: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation / American Heart Association Task Force on practice guidelines. Circulation. 2013;128 (16):e240 – e327.
  3. Mancini D., Lietz K. Selection of cardiac transplantation candidates in 2010. Circulation. 2010;122 (2):173–183.
  4. Шляхто Е. В., Ситникова М. Ю., Лелявина Т. А. Современные алгоритмы оценки прогноза у больных хронической сердечной недостаточностью. Сравнительная характеристика МНП-возрастной модели выживаемости (Нева -75) и Сиэттлской модели сердечной недостаточности (SEATTLE HEART FAILURE MODEL) у больных 75–85 лет. Журнал Сердечная Недостаточность. 2009;10 (1):4–7.
  5. Краснова О. А., Ситникова М. Ю., Иванов С. Г., Федотов П. А. Эффективность Сиэттлской модели выживаемости при ХСН для определения долгосрочного прогноза мужчин с ишемической болезнью. Российский кардиологический журнал. 2012;97 (5):58–62.
  6. Lupón J., de Antonio M., Vila J., Peñafiel J., Galán A., Zamora E., et al. Development of a novel heart failure risk tool: the barcelona bio-heart failure risk calculator (BCN bio-HF calculator). PLoS ONE. 2014;9 (1):e85466.
  7. Horwich T. B., Kalantar-Zadeh K., MacLellan R. W., Fonarow G. C. Albumin levels predict survival in patients with systolic heart failure. Am. Heart J. 2008;155 (5):883–889.
  8. Huang H., Huang B., Li Y., Huang Y., Li J., Yao H., et al. Uric acid and risk of heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur. J. Heart Fail. 2014;16 (1):15–24.
  9. Brenyo A., Zaręba W. Prognostic significance of QRS duration and morphology. Cardiol J. 2011;18 (1):8–17.
  10. Pecini R., Møller D. V., Torp-Pedersen C., Hassager C., Køber L. Heart failure etiology impacts survival of patients with heart failure. Int. J. Cardiol. 2011;149 (2):211–215.
  11. Global strategy for the diagnosis, management, and prevention of Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. GOLD / 2014.
  12. Пчелина С. Н., Сироткина О. В., Шейдина А. М., Тараскина А. Е., Родыгина Т. И., Демина Е. П., и др. Генетические факторы риска развития инфаркта миокарда у мужчин молодого возраста, проживающих в северо-западном регионе России. Кардиология. 2007;47 (7):29–34.
  13. Ситникова М. Ю. Алкогольное поражение сердца. Альманах судебной медицины. 2009;11 (3):25–29.
  14. Popjes E. D., Ooi H. H. Alcoholic Cardiomyopathy.2014.
  15. Aberle II N. S., Ren J. Experimental Assessment of the Role of Acetaldehyde in Alcoholic Cardiomyopathy. Biol Proced Online. 2003;51–12.
  16. Najjar Y. Al-, Goode K. M., Zhang J., Cleland J. G. F., Clark A. L. Red cell distribution width: an inexpensive and powerful prognostic marker in heart failure. Eur. J. Heart Fail. 2009;11 (12):1155–1162.
  17. Allen L. A., Felker G. M., Mehra M. R., Chiong J. R., Dunlap S. H., Ghali J. K., et al. Validation and potential mechanisms of red cell distribution width as a prognostic marker in heart failure. J. Card. Fail. 2010;16 (3):230–238.
  18. Masson S., Latini R., Anand I. S., Barlera S., Angelici L., Vago T., et al. Prognostic value of changes in N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in Val-HeFT (Valsartan Heart Failure Trial). J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. 2008;52 (12):997–1003.
Prokopova L. V., Kashuba S. M., Galenko V. L., Fedotov P. A., Smirnov B. I., Sitnikova M. Yu. Role of simple clinico-laboratory parameters in one-year prediction of lEF HF course in the epoch of high-tech methods of health care: the available prognosis study. Russian Heart Failure Journal. 2015;16 (3):137–144

To access this material please log in or register

Register Authorize
Ru En