Russian Heart Failure Journal 2009year Current algorithms for evaluation of prognosis in patients with CHF. Comparative characteristics of BNP – age-related modEl of SurVivAl (NEVA-75) and Seattle Heart Failure Model in patients aged 75–85 years

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Current algorithms for evaluation of prognosis in patients with CHF. Comparative characteristics of BNP – age-related modEl of SurVivAl (NEVA-75) and Seattle Heart Failure Model in patients aged 75–85 years

Shlyakhto E.V., Sitnikova M.Yu.,Lelyavina T. A., Ivanov S. G.,
Trukshina M. A., Fedotov P. A., Dorofeykov V.V., Smirnov B. I.



Urgency. Knowledge of clear prognostic criteria, i.e., evaluation of CHF severity and lethality risk at each phase of disease permits a correct choice of the way to improve prognosis in each individual patient. Aim. To compare predictive value of the algorithm NEVA-75 and the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in senile patients with non-valvular CHF. Materials and methods. Actual (AS) and probable survival (PS) were compared in 96 patients with non-valvular CHF aged 75–80 years who had been followed up for 2.5 years. AS data were collected by telephone survey. Blood levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) were measured a day before discharge from a hospital. Probable survival was calculated based on an original algorithm NEVA-75 and SHFM. Results. Actual survival of patients for 2.5 years was 39 % and it corresponded to data of probable survival in 95 % of cases as calculated using the algorithm NEVA-75. Estimated probable survival obtained from SHFM exceeded actual life span of studied patients in 88 % of cases. Probable survival of patients with CHF aged 75–79 years who had BNP 100–4000 pg / ml as calculated using NEVA-75 and SHFM was significantly less (p<0,05) than AS. The model NEVA-75 demonstrated the highest prognostic accuracy in the subgroup of patients aged 80–85 years. Therefore survival prediction for patients with non-valvular CHF aged 75 years and older who received outpatient care at a non-specialized (relative to CHF) clinic should be appropriately calculated using the algorithm NEVA-75 developed on the basis of long-term observation specifically for such patients.
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